Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Market Cues
Domestic Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
Indian markets are likely to open negative tracking global indices and SGX Nifty.
BSE Sensex
(1.3)
(505)
37,585
U.S. stocks moved mostly lower over the course of the trading session on Monday,
Nifty
(1.2)
(137)
11,377
giving back ground after moving notably higher last week. The major averages all
Mid Cap
(0.7)
(124)
16,225
moved to the downside, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq showing a particularly steep
Small Cap
(0.05)
(7)
16,663
drop. The Dow Jones fell by 0.4 percent to 26,062 and Nasdaq plunged 1.4
percent to 7,895.
Bankex
1.2
363
30,622
UK stocks fell on Monday, with mining stocks coming under selling pressure on
Global Indices
Chg (%)
(Pts)
(Close)
concerns that an escalating trade war between the United States and China could
hurt global growth. The FTSE 100 was down 0.45 percent at 7,271.
Dow Jones
(0.4)
(92)
26,062
Nasdaq
(1.4)
(114)
7,895
On domestic front, Indian stocks came under heavy selling pressure once again on
FTSE
(0.5)
(33)
7,271
Monday as the rupee extended recent declines despite measures announced by the
government to cut down "non-necessary" imports, ease overseas borrowing norms
Nikkei
1.2
273
23,094
for the manufacturing sector and relax rules around banks raising masala bonds, or
Hang Seng
(1.3)
(353)
26,932
rupee-denominated overseas bonds. The BSE Sensex moved downwards by 1.3% to
Shanghai Com
(0.2)
(5)
2,682
37,585.
Advances / Declines
BSE
NSE
Advances
1,820
1,276
News Analysis
Declines
853
540
Government Announces Merger of Bank of Baroda, Dena Bank And Vijaya
Unchanged
173
82
Bank
Detailed analysis on Pg2
Volumes (` Cr)
BSE
1,820
Investor’s Ready Reckoner
NSE
853
Key Domestic & Global Indicators
Stock Watch: Latest investment recommendations on 150+ stocks
Net Inflows (` Cr)
Net
Mtd
Ytd
Refer Pg5 onwards
FII
(1,077)
(1,418)
(6,857)
Top Picks
*MFs
1,125
3,967
80,584
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Sector
Rating
(`)
(`)
(%)
Blue Star
Capital Goods
Buy
660
867
31.3
Top Gainers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Dewan Housing Finance
Financials
Accumulate
610
720
18.2
27
14.8
Parag Milk Foods
Others
Buy
283
410
44.9
464
13.2
Bata India
Others
Buy
995
1,243
24.9
KEI Industries
Capital Goods
Buy
391
589
50.5
3,128
10.7
More Top Picks on Pg4
2,804
10.0
7
9.0
Key Upcoming Events
Previous
Consensus
Date
Region
Event Description
ReadingExpectations
Top Losers
Price (`)
Chg (%)
Sep 18, 2018 US
Industrial Production
0.11
0.30
ASHOKA
115
-5.9
Sep 19, 2018 Euro Zone Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
2.00
2.00
Sep 19, 2018 US
Building permits
1,303.00
1,300.00
KWALITY
19
-4.8
Sep 19, 2018 UK
CPI (YoY)
2.50
2.40
106
-4.3
Sep 20, 2018 US
Initial Jobless claims
204.00
995
-4.2
More Events on Pg7
553
-3.8
As on Sept 17, 2018
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
News Analysis
Government Announces Merger of Bank of Baroda, Dena Bank And
Vijaya Bank
Indian government on Monday announced the amalgamation of three public
sector lenders -- Bank of Baroda, Dena Bank and Vijaya Bank. The announcement
was made after a meeting of the ‘alternative mechanism’ set up last year to
consider consolidation in the banking sector. The proposal will now need to be
passed by the boards of individual banks and share swap ratios arrived at. The
merger of these three lenders follows the merger of State Bank of India and its
associate banks in 2017. That experience, according to Rajiv Kumar, secretary in
the Department of Financial Services, has yielded good results. This prompted the
government to take the next step in banking consolidation by deciding to merge
three public sector lenders. The merger of Bank of Baroda, Vijaya Bank and Dena
Bank will create a lender which will be the third largest in India, said Kumar.
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley added that the merger has been conceived in a way
that the combined bank does not end up being weaker than the individual entities.
There will be no adverse impact on employees and customers of the individual
banks as a result of the proposed merger, said Jaitley.
Economic and Political News
Government urges states to raise power purchase; plans to revive stalled
Corporate News
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Top Picks
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
Favorable outlook for the AC industry to augur
well for Cooling products business which is out
Blue Star
6,479
660
867
31.3
pacing the market growth. EMPPAC division's
profitability
to
improve once operating
environment turns around.
With a focus on the low and medium income (LMI)
consumer segment, the company has increased its
Dewan Housing Finance
19,274
610
720
18.2
presence in tier-II & III cities where the growth
opportunity is immense.
Well capitalized with CAR of 18.1% which gives
sufficient room to grow asset base. Faster
ICICI Bank
2,11,132
325
416
28.1
resolution of NPA would reduce provision cost,
which would help to report better ROE.
High order book execution in EPC segment, rising
KEI Industries
3,173
391
589
50.5
B2C sales and higher exports to boost the
revenues and profitability
Expected to benefit from the lower capex
Music Broadcast Limited
1,875
329
475
44.5
requirement and 15 year long radio broadcast
licensing.
Strong brands and distribution network would
Siyaram Silk Mills
2,488
535
851
59.3
boost growth going ahead. Stock currently trades
at an inexpensive valuation.
GST regime and the Gujarat plant are expected to
Maruti Suzuki
2,60,781
8,533
10,820
26.8
improve the company’s sales volume and
margins, respectively.
We expect loan book to grow at 24.3% over next
GIC Housing
1,665
306
591
93.1
two year; change in borrowing mix will help in
NIM improvement
Third largest brand play in luggage segment
Increased product offerings and improving
Safari Industries
2,005
895
1,071
19.1
distribution network is leading to strong growth in
business. Likely to post robust growth for next 3-4
years
We expect financialisation of savings and
Aditya Birla Capital
29,333
132
218
63.6
increasing penetration in Insurance & Mutual fund
would ensure steady growth.
One of the leading Indian dairy products
companies in India created strong brands in dairy
products. Rising revenue share of high-margin
Parag Milk Foods
2,414
283
410
44.9
Value Added Products and reduction in interest
cost is likely to boost margins and earnings in next
few years.
HDFC Bank maintained its steady growth in the
4QFY18. The bank’s net profit grew by 20.3%.
Steady growth in interest income and other income
HDFC Bank
5,50,915
1,992
2,350
17.8
aided PAT growth. The Strong liability franchise
and healthy capitalisation provides strong earning
visibility. At the current market price, the bank is
trading at 3.2x FY20E ABV.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect strong PAT growth on back of
healthy growth in automobile segment (on
back of new launches and facelifts in some of
M&M
1,18,340
947
1,050
10.6
the model ) and strong growth in Tractors
segment coupled by its strong brand recall
and improvement in rural sentiment
Market leader in the room air conditioner
(RAC) outsourced manufacturing space in India
with a market share of 55.4%. It is a one-stop
Amber Enterprises
2,973
935
1,230
31.5
solutions provider for the major brands in the
RAC industry and currently serves eight out of
the 10 top RAC brands in India
BIL is the largest footwear retailer in India,
offering footwear, accessories and bags across
brands. We expect BIL to report net PAT CAGR
of
~16% to
~`3115cr over FY2018-20E
Bata India
13,376
995
1,243
24.9
mainly due to new product launches, higher
number of stores addition and focus on
women’s high growth segment and margin
improvement
SHTF is in the sweet spot with benefits from
stronger CV volumes, NIMs unaffected by
Shriram Transport Finance
rising bond yields on the back of stronger
27,538
1,195
1,764
47.3
pricing power and an enhancing ROE by
750bps over FY18-20E, supported by decline
in credit cost.
We expect JSPL’s top line to grow at
27%
CAGR over FY19-FY20 on the back of strong
steel demand and capacity addition. On the
Jindal Steel & Power Limited
22,602
238
327
37.3
bottom line front, we expect JSPL to turn in to
profit by FY19 on back of strong operating
margin improvement.
GMM Pfaudler Limited (GMM) is the Indian
market leader in glass-lined (GL) steel
equipment. GMM is expected to cross CAGR
GMM Pfaulder
1,636
1,106
1,287
16.3
15%+ in revenue over the next few years
mainly led by uptick in demand from user
industries and it is also expecting to increase its
share of non-GL business to 50% by 2020.
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals, amongst the
Indian Pharmaceutical companies, is well
placed to face the challenging generic markets,
given its focus on achieving growth through
Aurobindo Pharmaceuticals
46,840
789
870
10.2
productivity. Aurobindo will report net revenue
& net profit CAGR of ~13% & ~8% resp.
during FY2018-20E. Valuations are cheap V/s
its peers and own fair multiples of 17-18x.
Well planned strategy to grow small business
loans and cross-selling would propel fees
Yes Bank
74,576
318
435
34.6
income. We expect YES to grow its advance
much higher than industry and improvement in
asset quality to support profitability.
We believe advance to grow at a healthy
CAGR of 35% over FY18-20E. Below peers
RBL Bank
25,898
596
670
12.4
level ROA
(1.2% FY18) to expand led by
margin expansion and lower credit cost.
TTK Prestige has emerged as one of the
leading brands in kitchen appliances in India
after its successful transformation from a single
TTK Prestige
7,997
6,826
8,200
20.2
product company to offering an entire gamut
of home and kitchen appliances. We are
expecting a CAGR of 18% in revenue and 25%
in PAT over FY2018-20.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Continued...
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
We expect Inox Wind to report exponential
growth in top-line and bottom-line over FY19-
20E. The growth would be led by changing
renewable energy industry dynamics in favor of
Inox Winds
2,184
104
127
22.1
wind energy segment viz. changes in auction
regime from Feed-In-Tariff (FIT) to reverse
auction regime and Government’s guidance for
10GW auction in FY19 and FY20 each.
Considering the strong CV demand due to
change in BS-VI emission norms (will trigger
pre-buying activities), pick up in construction
Ashok Leyland
38,558
127
156
22.8
activities and no significant impact on industry
due to recent axle load norms, we recommend
BUY on Ashok Leyland at current valuations.
Source: Company, Angel Research
Fundamental Call
Market Cap
CMP
Target
Upside
Company
Rationale
(` Cr)
(`)
(`)
(%)
CCL is likely to maintain the strong growth
CCL Products
3,564
265
360
34.4
trajectory over FY18-20 backed by capacity
expansion and new geographical foray
We forecast Nilkamal to report top-line CAGR of
~9% to `2,635cr over FY17-20E on the back of
Nilkamal
2,679
1,818
2,178
19.8
healthy demand growth in plastic division. On the
bottom-line front, we estimate
~10% CAGR to
`162cr owing to improvement in volumes.
Elantas Beck India is the Indian market leader in
liquid insulation segment used in electrical
equipments like motors, transformers etc. It derives
Elantas Beck India Ltd
1,698
2,066
2,500
21.0
demand from several industries which are expected
to register 10%+ CAGR in demand in the coming
years.
Greenply Industries Ltd (GIL) manufactures plywood
& allied products and medium density fibreboards
(MDF). GIL to report net revenue CAGR of ~14% to
Greenply Industries
2,346
190
333
74.1
~`2,478cr over FY2017-20E mainly due to healthy
growth in plywood & lamination business on the
back of strong brand and distribution network
L&T Fin’s new management is on track to achieve
L&T Finance Holding
32,172
155
210
35.4
ROE of 18% by 2020 and recent capital infusion of
`3000cr would support advance growth.
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Key Upcoming Events
Global economic events release calendar
Bloomberg Data
Date
Time Country
Event Description
Unit
Period
Last Reported
Estimated
Sep 17, 2018
6:45 PMUS
Industrial Production
%
Aug
0.11
0.30
Sep 19, 2018
2:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone CPI (YoY)
%
Aug F
2.00
2.00
6:00 PMUS
Building permits
Thousands
Aug
1,303.00
1,300.00
2:00 PMUK
CPI (YoY)
% Change
Aug
2.50
2.40
Sep 20, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Initial Jobless claims
Thousands
Sep 15
204.00
7:30 PMEuro Zone
Euro-Zone Consumer Confidence
Value
Sep A
(1.90)
(2.00)
7:30 PMUS
Existing home sales
Million
Aug
5.34
5.38
Sep 21, 2018
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Services
Value
Sep P
55.00
55.00
1:00 PMGermany
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep P
55.90
55.70
Sep 25, 2018
7:30 PMUS
Consumer Confidence
S.A./ 1985=100
Sep
133.40
130.50
Sep 26, 2018
7:30 PMUS
New home sales
Thousands
Aug
627.00
637.50
6:00 PMUS
GDP Qoq (Annualised)
% Change
2Q T
4.20
4.30
Sep 27, 2018
11:30 PMUS
FOMC rate decision
%
Sep 26
2.00
2.25
Sep 28, 2018
1:25 PMGermany
Unemployment change (000's)
Thousands
Sep
(8.00)
2:00 PMUK
GDP (YoY)
% Change
2Q F
1.30
Sep 30, 2018
6:30 AMChina
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep
51.30
Oct 01, 2018
2:00 PMUK
PMI Manufacturing
Value
Sep
52.80
Oct 05, 2018
6:00 PMUS
Change in Nonfarm payrolls
Thousands
Sep
201.00
6:00 PMUS
Unnemployment rate
%
Sep
3.90
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Reverse Repo rate
%
Oct 5
6.25
2:30 PMIndia
RBI Repo rate
%
Oct 5
6.50
US
Producer Price Index (mom)
% Change
Sep
-
Oct 10, 2018
2:00 PMUK
Industrial Production (YoY)
% Change
Aug
0.90
6:00 PMUS
Consumer price index (mom)
% Change
Sep
0.20
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Macro watch
Exhibit 1: Quarterly GDP trends
Exhibit 2: IIP trends
(%)
(%)
10.0
9.0
8.5
9.1
8.0
7.3
7.5
9.0
8.2
6.9
6.9
8.0
8.1
6.6
7.6
7.7
7.0
8.0
7.2
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.3
7.0
6.3
4.5
6.1
5.0
4.1
5.6
3.9
6.0
4.0
5.0
3.0
1.8
4.0
2.0
1.0
3.0
-
Source: CSO, Angel Research
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: Monthly CPI inflation trends
Exhibit 4: Manufacturing and services PMI
56.0
Mfg. PMI
Services PMI
(%)
6.0
54.0
5.2
5.1
4.9
4.9
4.9
4.6
52.0
5.0
4.4
4.3
4.2
50.0
3.6
3.7
4.0
3.3
48.0
3.0
46.0
2.0
44.0
1.0
42.0
40.0
-
Source: Market, Angel Research; Note: Level above 50 indicates expansion
Source: MOSPI, Angel Research
Exhibit 5: Exports and imports growth trends
Exhibit 6: Key policy rates
(%)
Exports yoy growth
Imports yoy growth
(%)
Repo rate
Reverse Repo rate
CRR
35.0
7.00
30.0
6.50
25.0
6.00
20.0
5.50
15.0
5.00
10.0
4.50
5.0
4.00
0.0
3.50
(5.0)
3.00
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Source: RBI, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Global watch
Exhibit 1: Latest quarterly GDP Growth (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
8.0
(%)
6.9
7.0
5.8
6.0
5.3
5.0
5.0
1.1
3.7
4.0
2.5
3.0
2.2
1.8
2.0
1.5
1.4
0.8
1.0
0.3
-
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Exhibit 2: 2017 GDP Growth projection by IMF (%, yoy) across select developing and developed countries
(%)
6.7
6.8
7.0
6.0
5.4
5.2
5.0
3.7
4.0
3.0
1.8
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.5
2.0
0.7
0.7
1.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Exhibit 3: One year forward P-E ratio across select developing and developed countries
(x)
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
Source: IMF, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Exhibit 4: Relative performance of indices across globe
Returns (%)
Country
Name of index
Closing price
1M
3M
1YR
Brazil
Bovespa
75,429
(4.0)
5.6
2.7
Russia
Micex
4,327
1.4
7.1
11.4
India
Nifty
11,515
0.7
6.1
14.1
China
Shanghai Composite
2,682
(1.5)
(11.3)
(20.8)
South Africa
Top 40
50,441
1.7
(1.7)
1.9
Mexico
Mexbol
49,612
2.2
6.3
(1.0)
Indonesia
LQ45
937
(2.7)
(2.6)
(4.7)
Malaysia
KLCI
1,804
(0.1)
1.6
1.7
Thailand
SET 50
1,136
2.5
0.7
9.9
USA
Dow Jones
26,155
3.4
3.9
17.5
UK
FTSE
7,304
(4.0)
(4.3)
0.7
Japan
Nikkei
23,095
4.0
1.1
19.8
Germany
DAX
12,124
(0.3)
(5.5)
(3.2)
France
CAC
5,353
0.9
(1.8)
2.1
Source: Bloomberg, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Exhibit 7: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
17-08-2018
Top Picks
Ashok Leyland
128
156
Open
10-08-2018
Top Picks
Inox Wind
107
127
Open
31-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
7,235
8,200
Open
09-08-2018
Top Picks
TTK Prstige
6,206
7,500
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Aurobindo Pharma
603
780
Open
30-08-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
626
690
Open
06-07-2018
Top Picks
RBL Bank
565
670
06-07-2018
Top Picks
Yes Bank
348
418
Open
30-06-2018
Top Picks
Jindal Steel & Power
222
350
Open
20-06-2018
Top Picks
Shriram Transport Finance Com
1,466
1,764
Open
30-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
918
1,007
Open
23-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
842
955
01-07-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
862
948
18-06-2018
Top Picks
Bata India
779
896
14-06-2018
Top Picks
Amber Enterprises
1,026
1,230
Open
07-06-2018
Top Picks
M&M
918
1050
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
M&M
860
990
03-05-2018
Fundamental
L&T Finance Holding
171
210
Open
02-05-2018
Top Picks
HDFC Bank
1944
2315
Open
04-05-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
573
1016
Closed(17/08/2018)
20-04-2018
Top Picks
Matrimony.com Ltd
781
984
15-05-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
310
410
Open
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Parag Milk Foods Limited
249
333
27-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,170
1,287
Open
18-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
1,024
1,200
07-08-2018
Top Picks
GMM Pfaudler Limited
984
1,100
29-06-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
932
1,020
14-05-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
818
900
06-04-2018
Fundamental
GMM Pfaudler Limited
712
861
07-03-2018
Fundamental
Ashok Leyland Ltd
139
163
Closed (26/04/2018)
03-03-2018
Fundamental
Greenply Industries
340
395
Open
27-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
974
1,071
Open
14-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
868
1,000
07-08-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
788
870
16-07-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
693
800
16-04-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
651
750
21-02-2018
Top Picks
Safari Industries
532
650
31-05-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
348
Closed (31/05/2018)
16-02-2018
Top Picks
HSIL Ltd
433
510
07-02-2018
Fundamental
Elantas Beck India Ltd.
2155
2500
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
ICICI Bank
352
416
Open
01-02-2018
Top Picks
Aditya Birla Capital
167
218
Open
04-01-2018
Fundamental
CCL Products
278
360
Open
03-01-2018
Fundamental
Nilkamal Ltd
1880
2178
Open
01-01-2018
Fundamental
Capital First Ltd
693
850
Closed (15/01/2018)
30-12-2017
Fundamental
Shreyans Industries Ltd
205
247
Closed
Source: Company, Angel Research
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Exhibit 8: Historical Angel Top Picks/Fundamental Calls
Date Added
Top Picks/Fundamental
Stocks
Reco Price
Target/Revised Price
Current Status
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
160
Closed (09/05/2018)
21-12-2017
Fundamental
Prism Cement Ltd
118
131
18-12-2017
Fundamental Menon Bearings Limited
92
114
Closed (17/01/2018)
14-12-2017
Top Picks
Ruchira Papers Ltd.
188
244
Closed (09/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
280
Closed(17/05/2018)
28-11-2017
Top Picks
Century Plyboards India
317
400
19-12-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
85
Closed(18/06/2018)
06-11-2017
Top Picks
LT Foods
74
96
16-10-2017
FundamentalEndurance Technologies Ltd
1111
1277
Closed (01/12/2017)
11-09-2017
Top Picks
GIC Housing
533
655
Open
10-10-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
404
475
Open
20-07-2017
Top Picks
Music Broadcast Limited
368
434
07-07-2017
Fundamental L&T Finance Holdings Ltd
149
179
Closed (28/8/2017)
06-07-2017
Fundamental
Syngene International
478
564
Closed (1/3/2018)
05-07-2017
Top Picks
Maruti
7371
10619
Open
05-06-2017
Top Picks
Karur Vysya Bank
127
100
Closed (12/03/2018)
23-05-2018
Top Picks
KEI Industries
481
589
Open
04-01-2017
Top Picks
KEI Industries
125
485
31-05-2018
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1978
Closed (31/05/2018)
01-12-2016
Top Picks
Alkem Lab
1700
2441
17-10-2016
Top Picks
Asian Granito
267
534
Closed (18/02/2018)
17-05-2018
Top Picks
TV Today Network
460
Closed (17/05/2018)
04-08-2016
Top Picks
TV Today Network
297
603
05-04-2016
Top Picks
DHFL
189
720
Open
25-06-2018
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
Closed(25/06/2018)
05-01-2016
Top Picks
Navkar Corporation
207
265
Open
08-12-2015
Top Picks
Blue Star
357
867
Open
30-10-2015
Top Picks
Siyaram Silk Mills
186
851
Open
Source: Company
Market Outlook
September 18, 2018
Research Team Tel: 022 - 39357800
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